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Gators chances for a #1 Seed

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Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby Gatormatic » Mon Feb 11, 2013 8:34 pm

Maybe I'm crazy but I just don't buy the talk that the Gators do not have a shot at a 1 seed still.

It's not like we're #25 in the country or something, we are #7. If we run the table the rest of the way --- including wins @ Mizzou, @ UK and a revenge beatdown of Arkansas --- I think we'll be in great shape for a 1 seed. Think about it: That's about eleven straight wins, with only three losses. Two of which came against teams currently ranked in the Top 10 (Arizona and Kansas State). Those losses will look even better if both of those teams win their respective conference titles, which they both very well could.

If we were ranked in the double digits, I'd understand it but at #7 we only have to leapfrog a few teams to get in the top four tier. If you watched any College Hoops this past week, you know teams in front of us are bound to fall again, and the Gators can take advantage of that (I realize that means we can lose again too, but I'm trying to be positive). Also, the committee seems to like the Gators and/or Coach Donovan, as the past three years we've been seeded higher than a lot of pundits projected going into each respective NCAA Tournament.

With a SEC regular season title, SEC tournament title, 10-11 straight victories, and two credible losses to highly ranked teams and only one "bad" loss, I think the committee would have a hard time not giving the Gators a 1 seed. It also helps that the SEC Tournament Championship Game is only hours before the selections. Factor in that Duke, Miami, Michigan and Syracuse will all probably lose again, and I think we have a very strong shot at getting to that one line.
Last edited by Gatormatic on Mon Feb 11, 2013 8:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby phideltgator » Mon Feb 11, 2013 8:51 pm

I have a sick feeling Miami is possessed and will spoil our chances.
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby TN G8tr » Mon Feb 11, 2013 8:54 pm

They have a shot at a #1 but I think they will wind up a #2.
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby GatorsGetGoodAgain » Mon Feb 11, 2013 9:37 pm

top 3 is really good, esp if WY legitimately makes it back in 4 weeks from surgery. 1 seed is guaranteed if UF wins out including SEC tourney. I feel like there is still a a shot that they make a 1 seed even if they drop one more at UK or MIZZ but win the rest including the SEC tourney and good news from WY. Perception is a big deal, and losing WY means losing the best defensive player on a good defensive team. Analysts still think UF is one of the best 2-3 teams....when healthy.
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby gator1946 » Mon Feb 11, 2013 9:45 pm

Win and your in. Lose one more and we are probably in.
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby MJMGator » Mon Feb 11, 2013 9:52 pm

We'll end up a 2 or 3 seed. I don't see us avoiding at least one more loss between the regular season and the conf tourney. Couple that with how weak the SEC is this year and that's what we'll get. I'm not concerned with our seeding. Just concerned with playing well come tourney time!
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby g8rbob » Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:13 pm

I'd like to see us win out and take our chances on seeding. A 1 or 2 seed would be fine with me. I'm hoping we get healthy and stay focused on playing Billy Ball.
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby Sasquatch Gator » Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:03 am

Seeding is overrated anyway. If everything plays out as it should (with us not having more than 4 losses), we're a lock for a 2 seed at worst.
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby alcoholica » Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:13 am

I don't want a #1 or #2 seed. I think this team can get a sense of entitlement at times. Look to the benching of Young earlier in the season and Wilbekin more recently (not to mention his suspension). I think we'd be better served going in as a #3 with chip on our shoulder.
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby Gator_Machine » Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:40 am

alcoholica wrote:I don't want a #1 or #2 seed. I think this team can get a sense of entitlement at times. Look to the benching of Young earlier in the season and Wilbekin more recently (not to mention his suspension). I think we'd be better served going in as a #3 with chip on our shoulder.


Ridiculous! Reaching the Final 4 is stacked in favor of the #1 & #2 seeds. How do you think the Duke's, Kansas's, etc. have reached so many final4's in their history? Since 1985:

#1 seeds have reached the Final4 42% of the time!
#2 seeds have reached the Final4 26% of the time!
#3 seeds " " " " " 16% " " "

http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/F4.html

16- The number of times a No. 1 seed has cut down the nets since 1985. A top-seeded team has won the NCAA Championship in four of the last five years - Uconn was a #3 seed in 2011!

http://www.docsports.com/current/ncaa-tournament-seed-history.html

So, 16/27 = 59.2% of the time that a #1 seed has won the NCAA title since 1985!

Last year, Florida was a #7 seed & reached the Elite8; however, no #7 has reached the Final4 in this time (except for Virginia in 1983).

In the previous year, Florida was a #2 seed after winning the SEC title & being in the finals of the sec tourney against Kentucky. That year in 2011 was another year where none of the #1 seeds made the final4.
Last edited by Gator_Machine on Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:09 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby Gator_Machine » Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:59 am

Florida has won the NCAA title as a #3 seed (2006) and as a #1 seed (2007). Florida also reached the Final4 as a #3 seed in 1994 and was the first #5 seed to reach the Final4 in 2000!

One thing to note, in 2006, this was the first time that the Final4 did not have any #1 seeds reach the Final4 - the other year was 2011 when UConn won it all. In 2007, Florida defeated another #1 seed (Ohio St) to win their 2nd title. But in 2000, UF lost in the finals to another #1 seed (Michigan St). In 1994, Arkansas was the only #1 seed in the final4; the razorbacks defeated #2 seed Duke that year to win their first title!

So, it's good to get the #1 seed if you like to win it all!
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby Sasquatch Gator » Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:18 am

The reason #1 seeds make the most Final 4's is because, gasp, they're the best teams! Put some mediocre team like Ole Miss at the 1 spot and see what happens.
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby Gator_Machine » Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:26 am

GatorsGetGoodAgain wrote:top 3 is really good, esp if WY legitimately makes it back in 4 weeks from surgery. 1 seed is guaranteed if UF wins out including SEC tourney. I feel like there is still a a shot that they make a 1 seed even if they drop one more at UK or MIZZ but win the rest including the SEC tourney and good news from WY. Perception is a big deal, and losing WY means losing the best defensive player on a good defensive team. Analysts still think UF is one of the best 2-3 teams....when healthy.


Actually, a #3 seed is not bad; it's been pretty good for the Gators in reaching the Final4. Three times in the 2000s has a #3 seed won it all!

4- The number of times a No. 3 seed has won the NCAA Championship. Three has been a popular number over the last few years in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan won it in 1989. Carmelo Anthony and Syracuse won the title in 2003. Billy Donovan and the Gators cut down the nets in 2006. Kemba Walker and the UConn Huskies won it all last season.
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby Gator_Machine » Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:30 am

Sasquatch Gator wrote:The reason #1 seeds make the most Final 4's is because, gasp, they're the best teams! Put some mediocre team like Ole Miss at the 1 spot and see what happens.


A good/great team still has to go out & earn it. Usually by winning their conference & tourney championship and having less than 5-6 losses. Florida can take a giant step forward in doing just that by defeating Kentucky and having a two game lead in the SEC race.
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby Wait ’til next year » Tue Feb 12, 2013 6:13 am

Obviously a ton hinges on tonights outcome.
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby muddycorey » Tue Feb 12, 2013 6:30 am

I think that if the team can return to the level of defense that characterized the 10 game win streak, then they'll take care of business the rest of the way. Even with one hiccup, they should be able to get a 1 or 2 seed.

It all really will depend on what the selection committee decides to look at this year with all of the bpi and kenpomroy talk on top of the rpi. If they rely on the bpi and kenpom ratings, then we'll probably end up a #1, if they factor in the rpi, we'll probably still end up a #1 definitely a #2. If they factor in all of that on top of the SEC vs. the B1G or ACC, then we'll probably end up a #2.

In the end, it will all depend on the defense that the team re-commits themselves to, because that with the unselfishness of the players seems to be the definite staple of this year's team. I just hope that the Freshmen, transfers watching, and great new guys coming in see how well it worked this year and make this a new characteristic of Gator Basketball.
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby WobbleGator » Tue Feb 12, 2013 8:37 am

We will be a 3 seed.
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby mrgator » Tue Feb 12, 2013 9:52 am

Gator_Machine wrote:
alcoholica wrote:I don't want a #1 or #2 seed. I think this team can get a sense of entitlement at times. Look to the benching of Young earlier in the season and Wilbekin more recently (not to mention his suspension). I think we'd be better served going in as a #3 with chip on our shoulder.


Ridiculous! Reaching the Final 4 is stacked in favor of the #1 & #2 seeds. How do you think the Duke's, Kansas's, etc. have reached so many final4's in their history? Since 1985:

#1 seeds have reached the Final4 42% of the time!
#2 seeds have reached the Final4 26% of the time!
#3 seeds " " " " " 16% " " "

http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/F4.html

16- The number of times a No. 1 seed has cut down the nets since 1985. A top-seeded team has won the NCAA Championship in four of the last five years - Uconn was a #3 seed in 2011!

http://www.docsports.com/current/ncaa-tournament-seed-history.html

So, 16/27 = 59.2% of the time that a #1 seed has won the NCAA title since 1985!

Last year, Florida was a #7 seed & reached the Elite8; however, no #7 has reached the Final4 in this time (except for Virginia in 1983).

In the previous year, Florida was a #2 seed after winning the SEC title & being in the finals of the sec tourney against Kentucky. That year in 2011 was another year where none of the #1 seeds made the final4.


This. I hope the Gators go on a tear and secure a number 1 seed. This pretty much guarantees a trip to the Sweet Sixteen (barring a complete meltdown in the 1st two games). Then it's a matter stringing together a couple of wins to make it to the final four.

I think the Gators have 2 more SEC regular season losses and I think UK has 2 more regular season losses to give the gators the regular season. I then think Florida wins the tourney on a neutral court. That will give them a 2 seed with an infinitesimal chance at a 1 seed.
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby Ga Gator » Tue Feb 12, 2013 10:17 am

#1 or #2 really does not make a difference because they would play anyway as long as both take care of business. Tonights game is the most important of the season by far (up to now).
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Re: Gators chances for a #1 Seed

Postby WobbleGator » Tue Feb 12, 2013 10:21 am

Ga Gator wrote:#1 or #2 really does not make a difference because they would play anyway as long as both take care of business. Tonights game is the most important of the season by far (up to now).

Same could be said about any two seedings.
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