Odds to win next years BCS Title

[BMF]

01-08-2013, 06:42 PM
odds got up there pretty fast.....

1. Alabama +300
2. Oregon +800
3. LSU +1000
4. Ohio State +1000
5. Texas A&M +1400
6. Florida +1500
7. Florida State +1500
8. Clemson +2000
9. Louisville +2000
10. Notre Dame +2000
11. Miami +2500
12. Oklahoma +2500
13. Stanford +3000
14. Georgia +3000
15. Michigan +3000
16. South Carolina +3000
17. Texas +3000
18. Nebraska +3500
19. Oklahoma State +4000
20. UCLA +4000
21. USC +4000
22. Wisconsin +5000
23. Mississippi State +6000
24. Virginia Tech +6000
25. TCU +6500
Receiving Votes: Oregon State (70/1), Boise State (75/1), Michigan State (80/1), North Carolina (80/1), Arizona (100/1), Rutgers (100/1), Tennessee (100/1), Washington (100/1), Arkansas (125/1), BYU (150/1), Cincinnati (150/1), Kansas State (150/1), Pittsburgh (150/1), West Virginia (150/1), Georgia Tech (175/1), Iowa (175/1), Auburn (200/1), Missouri (200/1), California (250/1), South Florida (250/1), Boston College (300/1)

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[NavetG8r]

We were one butter fingers game away from a shot this year. It's completely possible some improvement by our QB, the JUCOs coming in on the line, and some freshmen skill position players can help us be better next year. I'm not a betting man so I don't really know what those numbers mean, but I'd say the placement on that list at #6 is probably as accurate as anyone can guess at this point.

[EuroGator]

11. Miami +2500

Unreal.

[BMF]

11. Miami +2500

Unreal.

Agree. They return a lot of starters, but their upside seems pretty low.

Louisville is the best bet on there, if you want to lay out the money on a futures bet. They lose 3 starters and will likely be favored in every game they play.....and we know they can beat an SEC team!

Navet, the lines aren't too difficult: +300 means, bet $100 you win $300....so when you collect you'll get $400 (your original wager of $100 plus your winnings of $300). -110 is what you usually see for games...it means bet $110 to win $100.

[NavetG8r]

11. Miami +2500

Unreal.

Agree. They return a lot of starters, but their upside seems pretty low.

Louisville is the best bet on there, if you want to lay out the money on a futures bet. They lose 3 starters and will likely be favored in every game they play.....and we know they can beat an SEC team!

Navet, the lines aren't too difficult: +300 means, bet $100 you win $300....so when you collect you'll get $400 (your original wager of $100 plus your winnings of $300). -110 is what you usually see for games...it means bet $110 to win $100.

Thanks, but you're still flying way over my head. It's ok though. It's best I don't do any gambling. You should have seen my bowl picks. It was ugly.

[GatorMark86]

Miami at #11 what a joke. No way they have a better chance than Georgia with Murry back. Although Miami does not have to go through the SEC grind to get to the game.

Looking for a breakout year for JD with our new stable of receivers!!!

[Ancient Reptile]

For seven years in a row an SEC team has won. Three SEC teams in the top ten. Put a $100 on each of them. If Bama wins again you break even. If either of the other two win, you make good money.

[rogdochar]

If betting the odds to win next year's NC, then I bet on pOSU, since
that's the most odd bunch, coach and all.

[GatorInGeorgia]

For seven years in a row an SEC team has won. Three SEC teams in the top ten. Put a $100 on each of them. If Bama wins again you break even. If either of the other two win, you make good money.

4 SEC teams in the top 10, not 3 (Al, LSU, Fl, TAM). Nonetheless, I like your strategy and it makes a lot of sense. I'd venture a guess that you've placed a few wagers in your day.

[rogdochar]

However, do the real odds calculate in those increasing leanings
toward keeping SEC teams out of the final pairing. The evidence
that ND was awarded #1 status, shows what rah-rah can do to the
alignment.
With more anti-SEC pressure building, could we see ND v Oregon
next year ? ... or pOSU v Oregon.

[GatorInGeorgia]

11. Miami +2500

Unreal.

Agree. They return a lot of starters, but their upside seems pretty low.

Louisville is the best bet on there, if you want to lay out the money on a futures bet. They lose 3 starters and will likely be favored in every game they play.....and we know they can beat an SEC team!

Navet, the lines aren't too difficult: +300 means, bet $100 you win $300....so when you collect you'll get $400 (your original wager of $100 plus your winnings of $300). -110 is what you usually see for games...it means bet $110 to win $100.

You're comparing apples and oranges on the odds. Effectively, of all the teams in the field, Bama is a 3 to 1 favorite to win the NC. The -110 doesn't have any bearing and indicates nothing relative to the +300. The -110 is just what you lay to win 100 on a specific game between 2 teams when you're picking one of those teams against the spread, regardless of whether you're picking the favorite or the dog.

[DaddyGator]

Captain Obvious says we need major offensive improvement.

[Jbossgator9]

Here is my take on it:

Alabama - starting QB comes back and they will reload on defense yet again. Can they get past Johnny Football and LSU and SEC Title game? Someone has to knock them off sooner or later.

Texas A&M - Can Johnny Football lead them all the way? Can their defense get better??

FSU - Easy schedule except they play AT The Swamp so they will automatically be ranked very highly to start the season. They will have a new QB so I think they will lose a couple of games.

Louisville - They will automatically be ranked highly to start the season because of the Sugar Bowl. Their QB will be on the Heisman short list to start the season too. Easy schedule in the Big East.

Oregon - They always have a high flying offense and have a relatively easy schedule. Have to get past Stanford and UCLA. Can their defense hold up?

Stanford - Can they get past ND, Oregon, and UCLA?

ND - They now have experience but a tough schedule. I think they aren't as lucky in 2013 and lose 3 games.

OSU - Easy schedule in the Big 10ish. Will their defense get better? How will they play when the games actually matter in 2013?

UGA - Aaron Murray is back, but can he win the big one? Easy schedule yet again besides playing UF and SC.

SC - Can Clowney carry their defense again and win the Heisman?? Their QB seems to self destruct and lose games.

UF - We had a breakout year and are AHEAD of schedule in Muschamp's 3 year plan to get back to the Elite. Can the offense improve? Will Jeff Driskel improve? Will the O-line improve? Which WRs will step up? Who will star on the defense? I think we improve throughout the spring and we win at least 10 games. We have a tough schedule but I think we can do it and get to the SEC Title game. Go Gators!!

[scmike]

I am always a optimist, but I do not see us playing in this equation unless the QB and offense improve. Our offense has been horrible for 3 years, and it does not look like a lock in that we will vastly improve next season. JD has happy feet, and he is not very accurate after 2 years at the college level. Additionally, we lost some studs on defense, but I believe WM will fix the defense. Pease has not shown much to date.

[BMF]

11. Miami +2500

Unreal.

Agree. They return a lot of starters, but their upside seems pretty low.

Louisville is the best bet on there, if you want to lay out the money on a futures bet. They lose 3 starters and will likely be favored in every game they play.....and we know they can beat an SEC team!

Navet, the lines aren't too difficult: +300 means, bet $100 you win $300....so when you collect you'll get $400 (your original wager of $100 plus your winnings of $300). -110 is what you usually see for games...it means bet $110 to win $100.

You're comparing apples and oranges on the odds. Effectively, of all the teams in the field, Bama is a 3 to 1 favorite to win the NC. The -110 doesn't have any bearing and indicates nothing relative to the +300. The -110 is just what you lay to win 100 on a specific game between 2 teams when you're picking one of those teams against the spread, regardless of whether you're picking the favorite or the dog.

...ummm, that's exactly what I said: bet $100 to win $300 (which is 3 to 1). Then I said the -110 is what you usually see on GAMES. Go re-read what I wrote. No apples and oranges. I was trying to give a quick summary of what the + and - means. I've been handicapping for 15 years, I think I know what I'm talking about....

[Maillot Jaune]

Two things:

1. I am really upset that FSU is not 300. Have the oddsmakers not heard they are back?

2. With this Miami resurgence we may get a visit from Cane Thing.

[gatordad]

Ole Canething...he went away and may never be back. He may make an appearance the week of the game in the fall. We need to load up for him; let him know he was missed, etc.

[Coach9]

I'll take some Gators at +1500.
Best moneyline I've seen since the FSU game where they had Gators +240.
Stealing!

[GatorInGeorgia]

11. Miami +2500

Unreal.

Agree. They return a lot of starters, but their upside seems pretty low.

Louisville is the best bet on there, if you want to lay out the money on a futures bet. They lose 3 starters and will likely be favored in every game they play.....and we know they can beat an SEC team!

Navet, the lines aren't too difficult: +300 means, bet $100 you win $300....so when you collect you'll get $400 (your original wager of $100 plus your winnings of $300). -110 is what you usually see for games...it means bet $110 to win $100.

You're comparing apples and oranges on the odds. Effectively, of all the teams in the field, Bama is a 3 to 1 favorite to win the NC. The -110 doesn't have any bearing and indicates nothing relative to the +300. The -110 is just what you lay to win 100 on a specific game between 2 teams when you're picking one of those teams against the spread, regardless of whether you're picking the favorite or the dog.

...ummm, that's exactly what I said: bet $100 to win $300 (which is 3 to 1). Then I said the -110 is what you usually see on GAMES. Go re-read what I wrote. No apples and oranges. I was trying to give a quick summary of what the + and - means. I've been handicapping for 15 years, I think I know what I'm talking about....

As the only lines given in the thread were those for the field bet, I really didn't, and still don't, see how bringing up -110 was applicable to the odds posted on the board for a field bet. But whatever.......if you're just trying to give Navet an education then have at it.

[BMF]

11. Miami +2500

Unreal.

Agree. They return a lot of starters, but their upside seems pretty low.

Louisville is the best bet on there, if you want to lay out the money on a futures bet. They lose 3 starters and will likely be favored in every game they play.....and we know they can beat an SEC team!

Navet, the lines aren't too difficult: +300 means, bet $100 you win $300....so when you collect you'll get $400 (your original wager of $100 plus your winnings of $300). -110 is what you usually see for games...it means bet $110 to win $100.

You're comparing apples and oranges on the odds. Effectively, of all the teams in the field, Bama is a 3 to 1 favorite to win the NC. The -110 doesn't have any bearing and indicates nothing relative to the +300. The -110 is just what you lay to win 100 on a specific game between 2 teams when you're picking one of those teams against the spread, regardless of whether you're picking the favorite or the dog.

...ummm, that's exactly what I said: bet $100 to win $300 (which is 3 to 1). Then I said the -110 is what you usually see on GAMES. Go re-read what I wrote. No apples and oranges. I was trying to give a quick summary of what the + and - means. I've been handicapping for 15 years, I think I know what I'm talking about....

As the only lines given in the thread were those for the field bet, I really didn't, and still don't, see how bringing up -110 was applicable to the odds posted on the board for a field bet. But whatever.......if you're just trying to give Navet an education then have at it.

That's all it was...no worries.

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