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My view into the #'s for FSU

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My view into the #'s for FSU

Postby Robgator43 » Tue Nov 20, 2012 8:04 pm

It’s amazing to think that for the first time since 2000 both Florida and Florida State are ranked in the top 10. This Saturday the #4 Florida Gators will visit and battle the very impressive and eye tested #10 Florida State Seminoles.  I will now provide my perspective and prediction.
Florida holds the overall series record with a 33-21-2 record, and Florida leads the series 12-11-1 for the matchups that occurred in Tallahassee.  Florida State currently holds a two game winning streak in the series having won last year 21-7 in Gainesville and the last game in Tallahassee in 2010 with a 31-7 victory. For those of you wondering, FSU won in 2000 over the Gators 30-7
What’s at stake? Florida, thanks to some help, is back in the picture for a possible shot at the BCS National Championship Game. A big win this week, along with some additional help, and they can find themselves in Miami playing for the crystal ball – last time the National Championship was in Miami the Gators defeated Oklahoma in 2008.  Florida State has already locked their spot in the ACC Championship game where it appears they will play an unranked Georgia Tech team due to Miami taking the self-imposed bowl ban. Florida State would need two very impressive wins in a row over Florida and in the ACC Championship game, a lot of love from the human voters, more upsets to move them up, and then hope that they can somehow get noticed by the computers to have a shot at the BCS Title Game.  Realistically, win or lose to Florida it is looking like FSU will be playing in Miami…….against Rutgers in the Orange Bowl.

Now a look inside the numbers…..

I have been hearing a lot of my FSU friends talking about their defense and how great it is, which statistically is very true. The Noles are currently ranked 5th in scoring defense in the nation giving up 13.1 points per game. The Gators rank 3rd in this same category giving up 11.7 points per game.  Below I have taken the Gators and Seminoles schedules and combined their opponents listing them in order of best offenses played along with the result of that game (is there scoring defense ranking):

#3 Offense                Texas A&M (27th)                        Florida wins 20-17
#4 Offense                Clemson (46th)                        Florida State wins 49-37
#22 Offense                Tennessee (118th)                Florida wins 37-20
#24 Offense                Georgia (18th)                        Florida loses 17-9
#43 Offense                N.C. State (54th)                        Florida State loses 17-16
#45 Offense                Miami (FL) (79th)                        Florida State wins 33-20
#60 Offense                Virginia Tech (48th)                Florida State wins 28-22
#66 Offense                LSU (8th)                                Florida wins 14-6
#69 Offense                UL-Lafayette (80th)                Florida wins 27-20
#77 Offense                Vanderbilt (22nd)                        Florida wins 31-17
#85 Offense                Bowling Green (13th)                Florida wins 27-14
#86 Offense                Duke (101st)                        Florida State wins 48-7
#93 Offense                South Carolina (16th)                Florida wins 44-11
#95 Offense                USF (67th)                        Florida State wins 30-17
#98 Offense                Boston College (90th)                Florida State wins 51-7
#99 Offense                Missouri        (56th)                        Florida wins 14-7
#116 Offense                Kentucky (94th)                        Florida wins 38-0
#118 Offense                Wake Forest (76th)                Florida State wins 52-0
#123 Offense                Maryland (58th)                        Florida State wins 41-14
Div 1-AA                        Murray State                        Florida State wins 69-3
Div 1-AA                        Savannah St                        Florida State wins 55-0
Div 1-AA                        Jacksonville State                Florida wins 23-0

Looking at this information, you will see that the Gators have played 6 opponents with a scoring defense ranked higher than the best opponent FSU has played year to date – Clemson. Clemson’s scoring defense is 46th in the nation which is 19 spots behind that 6th Gator opponent just mentioned – Texas A&M ranked 27th. I do not want to diminish or take away from FSU’s great season. They have done a great job with their offense and defense playing against a much weaker schedule and they should be proud of it.

I’d like to point out one more thing before I move on to my prediction for the game – based on current records for college football the ACC currently has two teams with 9+ wins. The Pac-12 which is second best has three teams with 9+ wins. And you guessed what’s next, the SEC currently has SIX teams with 9+ wins.  

Why did I point this out? Everybody wants to write the Gators off and talk about their offense or lack thereof. The Gators though are clearly more battle tested than the Noles. It shows in the numbers and the schedule. All year long Florida has played to the level of their opponent – they have gotten up and conquered the big games and have played down and had some escapes against the weaker times. Florida State has done a great job of walking through the cream puffs, won a shoot out versus their toughest and only ranked opponent Clemson, and lost a game against a subpar N.C. State.

I’ve also noticed that FSU fans seem to forget last year’s game and thinking they won with ease. Our defense, which is better this year, did a great job against your offense last season. It was the single handed destruction of John Brantley that handed the game over to the Noles. This year’s Gator team has been different. We have controlled our offense much better, and with the exception of the Georgia game have protected the ball much better. First year offensive coordinator will have new wrinkles planned for the FSU game. If we can be effective we can be dangerous.

Bottom line, this game is coming down to the defenses – who will create the turnovers and provide better opportunities. Both teams have an All-American caliber kicker which could influence the game as well. I think it is pretty simple – the first team to 20 points will win.

So now that we’ve gone through the history, records, stats, conference power, etc. through it all out the window – it’s rivalry weekend and it doesn’t get much better than this!!!

My prediction:

Florida Gators                24
Florida State Seminoles        17
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Re: my view into the #'s for FSU

Postby RichardN » Tue Nov 20, 2012 8:07 pm

Good gosh it's a novel! :lol:
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Re: my view into the #'s for FSU

Postby FunnGun » Tue Nov 20, 2012 8:13 pm

Robgator43 wrote:It’s amazing to think that for the first time since 2000 both Florida and Florida State are ranked in the top 10. This Saturday the #4 Florida Gators will visit and battle the very impressive and eye tested #10 Florida State Seminoles.  I will now provide my perspective and prediction.
Florida holds the overall series record with a 33-21-2 record, and Florida leads the series 12-11-1 for the matchups that occurred in Tallahassee.  Florida State currently holds a two game winning streak in the series having won last year 21-7 in Gainesville and the last game in Tallahassee in 2010 with a 31-7 victory. For those of you wondering, FSU won in 2000 over the Gators 30-7
What’s at stake? Florida, thanks to some help, is back in the picture for a possible shot at the BCS National Championship Game. A big win this week, along with some additional help, and they can find themselves in Miami playing for the crystal ball – last time the National Championship was in Miami the Gators defeated Oklahoma in 2008.  Florida State has already locked their spot in the ACC Championship game where it appears they will play an unranked Georgia Tech team due to Miami taking the self-imposed bowl ban. Florida State would need two very impressive wins in a row over Florida and in the ACC Championship game, a lot of love from the human voters, more upsets to move them up, and then hope that they can somehow get noticed by the computers to have a shot at the BCS Title Game.  Realistically, win or lose to Florida it is looking like FSU will be playing in Miami…….against Rutgers in the Orange Bowl.

Now a look inside the numbers…..

I have been hearing a lot of my FSU friends talking about their defense and how great it is, which statistically is very true. The Noles are currently ranked 5th in scoring defense in the nation giving up 13.1 points per game. The Gators rank 3rd in this same category giving up 11.7 points per game.  Below I have taken the Gators and Seminoles schedules and combined their opponents listing them in order of best offenses played along with the result of that game (is there scoring defense ranking):

#3 Offense                Texas A&M (27th)                        Florida wins 20-17
#4 Offense                Clemson (46th)                        Florida State wins 49-37
#22 Offense                Tennessee (118th)                Florida wins 37-20
#24 Offense                Georgia (18th)                        Florida loses 17-9
#43 Offense                N.C. State (54th)                        Florida State loses 17-16
#45 Offense                Miami (FL) (79th)                        Florida State wins 33-20
#60 Offense                Virginia Tech (48th)                Florida State wins 28-22
#66 Offense                LSU (8th)                                Florida wins 14-6
#69 Offense                UL-Lafayette (80th)                Florida wins 27-20
#77 Offense                Vanderbilt (22nd)                        Florida wins 31-17
#85 Offense                Bowling Green (13th)                Florida wins 27-14
#86 Offense                Duke (101st)                        Florida State wins 48-7
#93 Offense                South Carolina (16th)                Florida wins 44-11
#95 Offense                USF (67th)                        Florida State wins 30-17
#98 Offense                Boston College (90th)                Florida State wins 51-7
#99 Offense                Missouri        (56th)                        Florida wins 14-7
#116 Offense                Kentucky (94th)                        Florida wins 38-0
#118 Offense                Wake Forest (76th)                Florida State wins 52-0
#123 Offense                Maryland (58th)                        Florida State wins 41-14
Div 1-AA                        Murray State                        Florida State wins 69-3
Div 1-AA                        Savannah St                        Florida State wins 55-0
Div 1-AA                        Jacksonville State                Florida wins 23-0

Looking at this information, you will see that the Gators have played 6 opponents with a scoring defense ranked higher than the best opponent FSU has played year to date – Clemson. Clemson’s scoring defense is 46th in the nation which is 19 spots behind that 6th Gator opponent just mentioned – Texas A&M ranked 27th. I do not want to diminish or take away from FSU’s great season. They have done a great job with their offense and defense playing against a much weaker schedule and they should be proud of it.

I’d like to point out one more thing before I move on to my prediction for the game – based on current records for college football the ACC currently has two teams with 9+ wins. The Pac-12 which is second best has three teams with 9+ wins. And you guessed what’s next, the SEC currently has SIX teams with 9+ wins.  

Why did I point this out? Everybody wants to write the Gators off and talk about their offense or lack thereof. The Gators though are clearly more battle tested than the Noles. It shows in the numbers and the schedule. All year long Florida has played to the level of their opponent – they have gotten up and conquered the big games and have played down and had some escapes against the weaker times. Florida State has done a great job of walking through the cream puffs, won a shoot out versus their toughest and only ranked opponent Clemson, and lost a game against a subpar N.C. State.

I’ve also noticed that FSU fans seem to forget last year’s game and thinking they won with ease. Our defense, which is better this year, did a great job against your offense last season. It was the single handed destruction of John Brantley that handed the game over to the Noles. This year’s Gator team has been different. We have controlled our offense much better, and with the exception of the Georgia game have protected the ball much better. First year offensive coordinator will have new wrinkles planned for the FSU game. If we can be effective we can be dangerous.

Bottom line, this game is coming down to the defenses – who will create the turnovers and provide better opportunities. Both teams have an All-American caliber kicker which could influence the game as well. I think it is pretty simple – the first team to 20 points will win.

So now that we’ve gone through the history, records, stats, conference power, etc. through it all out the window – it’s rivalry weekend and it doesn’t get much better than this!!!

My prediction:

Florida Gators                24
Florida State Seminoles        17

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Re: my view into the #'s for FSU

Postby Swamp82 » Tue Nov 20, 2012 8:21 pm

I agree word for word maybe, I skipped to the score and I like that.
I miss the easy feeling good ole days a few years back not to ole.
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Re: my view into the #'s for FSU

Postby MJMGator » Tue Nov 20, 2012 8:25 pm

Could you repeat that?
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Re: my view into the #'s for FSU

Postby bradgator2 » Tue Nov 20, 2012 9:33 pm

Robgator43 wrote:All of FSU stats are over-rated because they play in the amazingly weak ACC.

All of Florida stats are under-rated because they play in the brutal SEC.

Gators win.


Cool, I like that.
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Re: my view into the #'s for FSU

Postby Gatorphan » Tue Nov 20, 2012 11:22 pm

Let me sum it up with a cliff note.....
Robgator43 wrote: The Gators have played 6 opponents with a scoring defense ranked higher than the best opponent FSU has played year to date – Clemson. Clemson’s scoring defense is 46th in the nation which is 19 spots behind that 6th Gator opponent just mentioned – Texas A&M ranked 27th.
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Re: my view into the #'s for FSU

Postby tillsb » Tue Nov 20, 2012 11:27 pm

Swamp82 wrote:I agree word for word maybe, I skipped to the score and I like that.
I miss the easy feeling good ole days a few years back not to ole.


I got a paragraph in then skipped to the score, so I agree.
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Re: my view into the #'s for FSU

Postby mtn2top » Tue Nov 20, 2012 11:38 pm

A lot has been said about the weakness of FSU's schedule. As with years past, I don't think it really matters that much in this game. Both teams are going to leave it on the field.

It's mostly a wash on defense with an edge to UF. Special teams goes to UF, which will be a big factor in the outcome, especially our kickers. Offense has to go to FSU, especially the passing game.

The take away/give away ratio of the game will be very significant in the outcome. Except for the Georgia game, it's been very good for us this year. It's going to be a UF win in an ugly defensive struggle with a couple of key turnovers, which is how we got here.
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Re: my view into the #'s for FSU

Postby ccsdk » Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:42 am

I'm seeing a real defensive battle. Bunch of field goals and only one touch down. Gators 10-6
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Re: my view into the #'s for FSU

Postby jand3k » Wed Nov 21, 2012 10:28 am

Robgator43 wrote:It’s amazing to think that for the first time since 2000 both Florida and Florida State are ranked in the top 10. This Saturday the #4 Florida Gators will visit and battle the very impressive and eye tested #10 Florida State Seminoles.  I will now provide my perspective and prediction.
Florida holds the overall series record with a 33-21-2 record, and Florida leads the series 12-11-1 for the matchups that occurred in Tallahassee.  Florida State currently holds a two game winning streak in the series having won last year 21-7 in Gainesville and the last game in Tallahassee in 2010 with a 31-7 victory. For those of you wondering, FSU won in 2000 over the Gators 30-7
What’s at stake? Florida, thanks to some help, is back in the picture for a possible shot at the BCS National Championship Game. A big win this week, along with some additional help, and they can find themselves in Miami playing for the crystal ball – last time the National Championship was in Miami the Gators defeated Oklahoma in 2008.  Florida State has already locked their spot in the ACC Championship game where it appears they will play an unranked Georgia Tech team due to Miami taking the self-imposed bowl ban. Florida State would need two very impressive wins in a row over Florida and in the ACC Championship game, a lot of love from the human voters, more upsets to move them up, and then hope that they can somehow get noticed by the computers to have a shot at the BCS Title Game.  Realistically, win or lose to Florida it is looking like FSU will be playing in Miami…….against Rutgers in the Orange Bowl.

Now a look inside the numbers…..

I have been hearing a lot of my FSU friends talking about their defense and how great it is, which statistically is very true. The Noles are currently ranked 5th in scoring defense in the nation giving up 13.1 points per game. The Gators rank 3rd in this same category giving up 11.7 points per game.  Below I have taken the Gators and Seminoles schedules and combined their opponents listing them in order of best offenses played along with the result of that game (is there scoring defense ranking):

#3 Offense                Texas A&M (27th)                        Florida wins 20-17
#4 Offense                Clemson (46th)                        Florida State wins 49-37
#22 Offense                Tennessee (118th)                Florida wins 37-20
#24 Offense                Georgia (18th)                        Florida loses 17-9
#43 Offense                N.C. State (54th)                        Florida State loses 17-16
#45 Offense                Miami (FL) (79th)                        Florida State wins 33-20
#60 Offense                Virginia Tech (48th)                Florida State wins 28-22
#66 Offense                LSU (8th)                                Florida wins 14-6
#69 Offense                UL-Lafayette (80th)                Florida wins 27-20
#77 Offense                Vanderbilt (22nd)                        Florida wins 31-17
#85 Offense                Bowling Green (13th)                Florida wins 27-14
#86 Offense                Duke (101st)                        Florida State wins 48-7
#93 Offense                South Carolina (16th)                Florida wins 44-11
#95 Offense                USF (67th)                        Florida State wins 30-17
#98 Offense                Boston College (90th)                Florida State wins 51-7
#99 Offense                Missouri        (56th)                        Florida wins 14-7
#116 Offense                Kentucky (94th)                        Florida wins 38-0
#118 Offense                Wake Forest (76th)                Florida State wins 52-0
#123 Offense                Maryland (58th)                        Florida State wins 41-14
Div 1-AA                        Murray State                        Florida State wins 69-3
Div 1-AA                        Savannah St                        Florida State wins 55-0
Div 1-AA                        Jacksonville State                Florida wins 23-0

Looking at this information, you will see that the Gators have played 6 opponents with a scoring defense ranked higher than the best opponent FSU has played year to date – Clemson. Clemson’s scoring defense is 46th in the nation which is 19 spots behind that 6th Gator opponent just mentioned – Texas A&M ranked 27th. I do not want to diminish or take away from FSU’s great season. They have done a great job with their offense and defense playing against a much weaker schedule and they should be proud of it.

I’d like to point out one more thing before I move on to my prediction for the game – based on current records for college football the ACC currently has two teams with 9+ wins. The Pac-12 which is second best has three teams with 9+ wins. And you guessed what’s next, the SEC currently has SIX teams with 9+ wins.  

Why did I point this out? Everybody wants to write the Gators off and talk about their offense or lack thereof. The Gators though are clearly more battle tested than the Noles. It shows in the numbers and the schedule. All year long Florida has played to the level of their opponent – they have gotten up and conquered the big games and have played down and had some escapes against the weaker times. Florida State has done a great job of walking through the cream puffs, won a shoot out versus their toughest and only ranked opponent Clemson, and lost a game against a subpar N.C. State.

I’ve also noticed that FSU fans seem to forget last year’s game and thinking they won with ease. Our defense, which is better this year, did a great job against your offense last season. It was the single handed destruction of John Brantley that handed the game over to the Noles. This year’s Gator team has been different. We have controlled our offense much better, and with the exception of the Georgia game have protected the ball much better. First year offensive coordinator will have new wrinkles planned for the FSU game. If we can be effective we can be dangerous.

Bottom line, this game is coming down to the defenses – who will create the turnovers and provide better opportunities. Both teams have an All-American caliber kicker which could influence the game as well. I think it is pretty simple – the first team to 20 points will win.

So now that we’ve gone through the history, records, stats, conference power, etc. through it all out the window – it’s rivalry weekend and it doesn’t get much better than this!!!

My prediction:

Florida Gators                24
Florida State Seminoles        17


You know, I actually read the entire thread, and I get it...

you're coming out of the closet. Congratulations!

As I agreed w/many of your points I have got to tell you that 'coming out' is so acceptable these days.

So now you want to be a Gay-tor. Call your Dad and fess up; you'll feel better.
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Re: my view into the #'s for FSU

Postby jand3k » Wed Nov 21, 2012 10:29 am

Robgator43 wrote:It’s amazing to think that for the first time since 2000 both Florida and Florida State are ranked in the top 10. This Saturday the #4 Florida Gators will visit and battle the very impressive and eye tested #10 Florida State Seminoles.  I will now provide my perspective and prediction.
Florida holds the overall series record with a 33-21-2 record, and Florida leads the series 12-11-1 for the matchups that occurred in Tallahassee.  Florida State currently holds a two game winning streak in the series having won last year 21-7 in Gainesville and the last game in Tallahassee in 2010 with a 31-7 victory. For those of you wondering, FSU won in 2000 over the Gators 30-7
What’s at stake? Florida, thanks to some help, is back in the picture for a possible shot at the BCS National Championship Game. A big win this week, along with some additional help, and they can find themselves in Miami playing for the crystal ball – last time the National Championship was in Miami the Gators defeated Oklahoma in 2008.  Florida State has already locked their spot in the ACC Championship game where it appears they will play an unranked Georgia Tech team due to Miami taking the self-imposed bowl ban. Florida State would need two very impressive wins in a row over Florida and in the ACC Championship game, a lot of love from the human voters, more upsets to move them up, and then hope that they can somehow get noticed by the computers to have a shot at the BCS Title Game.  Realistically, win or lose to Florida it is looking like FSU will be playing in Miami…….against Rutgers in the Orange Bowl.

Now a look inside the numbers…..

I have been hearing a lot of my FSU friends talking about their defense and how great it is, which statistically is very true. The Noles are currently ranked 5th in scoring defense in the nation giving up 13.1 points per game. The Gators rank 3rd in this same category giving up 11.7 points per game.  Below I have taken the Gators and Seminoles schedules and combined their opponents listing them in order of best offenses played along with the result of that game (is there scoring defense ranking):

#3 Offense                Texas A&M (27th)                        Florida wins 20-17
#4 Offense                Clemson (46th)                        Florida State wins 49-37
#22 Offense                Tennessee (118th)                Florida wins 37-20
#24 Offense                Georgia (18th)                        Florida loses 17-9
#43 Offense                N.C. State (54th)                        Florida State loses 17-16
#45 Offense                Miami (FL) (79th)                        Florida State wins 33-20
#60 Offense                Virginia Tech (48th)                Florida State wins 28-22
#66 Offense                LSU (8th)                                Florida wins 14-6
#69 Offense                UL-Lafayette (80th)                Florida wins 27-20
#77 Offense                Vanderbilt (22nd)                        Florida wins 31-17
#85 Offense                Bowling Green (13th)                Florida wins 27-14
#86 Offense                Duke (101st)                        Florida State wins 48-7
#93 Offense                South Carolina (16th)                Florida wins 44-11
#95 Offense                USF (67th)                        Florida State wins 30-17
#98 Offense                Boston College (90th)                Florida State wins 51-7
#99 Offense                Missouri        (56th)                        Florida wins 14-7
#116 Offense                Kentucky (94th)                        Florida wins 38-0
#118 Offense                Wake Forest (76th)                Florida State wins 52-0
#123 Offense                Maryland (58th)                        Florida State wins 41-14
Div 1-AA                        Murray State                        Florida State wins 69-3
Div 1-AA                        Savannah St                        Florida State wins 55-0
Div 1-AA                        Jacksonville State                Florida wins 23-0

Looking at this information, you will see that the Gators have played 6 opponents with a scoring defense ranked higher than the best opponent FSU has played year to date – Clemson. Clemson’s scoring defense is 46th in the nation which is 19 spots behind that 6th Gator opponent just mentioned – Texas A&M ranked 27th. I do not want to diminish or take away from FSU’s great season. They have done a great job with their offense and defense playing against a much weaker schedule and they should be proud of it.

I’d like to point out one more thing before I move on to my prediction for the game – based on current records for college football the ACC currently has two teams with 9+ wins. The Pac-12 which is second best has three teams with 9+ wins. And you guessed what’s next, the SEC currently has SIX teams with 9+ wins.  

Why did I point this out? Everybody wants to write the Gators off and talk about their offense or lack thereof. The Gators though are clearly more battle tested than the Noles. It shows in the numbers and the schedule. All year long Florida has played to the level of their opponent – they have gotten up and conquered the big games and have played down and had some escapes against the weaker times. Florida State has done a great job of walking through the cream puffs, won a shoot out versus their toughest and only ranked opponent Clemson, and lost a game against a subpar N.C. State.

I’ve also noticed that FSU fans seem to forget last year’s game and thinking they won with ease. Our defense, which is better this year, did a great job against your offense last season. It was the single handed destruction of John Brantley that handed the game over to the Noles. This year’s Gator team has been different. We have controlled our offense much better, and with the exception of the Georgia game have protected the ball much better. First year offensive coordinator will have new wrinkles planned for the FSU game. If we can be effective we can be dangerous.

Bottom line, this game is coming down to the defenses – who will create the turnovers and provide better opportunities. Both teams have an All-American caliber kicker which could influence the game as well. I think it is pretty simple – the first team to 20 points will win.

So now that we’ve gone through the history, records, stats, conference power, etc. through it all out the window – it’s rivalry weekend and it doesn’t get much better than this!!!

My prediction:

Florida Gators                24
Florida State Seminoles        17


You know, I actually read the entire thread, and I get it...

you're coming out of the closet. Congratulations!

As I agreed w/many of your points I have got to tell you that 'coming out' is so acceptable these days.

So now you want to be a Gay-tor. Call your Dad and fess up; you'll feel better.
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Re: my view into the #'s for FSU

Postby electricg8r » Wed Nov 21, 2012 10:49 am

Good read, ban the arse before they populate. :D
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Re: My view into the #'s for FSU

Postby NavetG8r » Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:03 pm

Robgator43 wrote:Blah blah blah, Blah blah blah!

My prediction:

Florida Gators                24
Florida State Seminoles        17


Gators won't score 24, and the only way 1/2@ssU scores 17 is if the Gators have a replay of the UGA game and turn the ball over 6 times again.

It'll be more like:

Gators 13
Noles 10 (7 off some stupid turn-over in our own territory late in the game).
DCflorida wrote:"Oh that's right, I had totally forgotten that we were 4-8 and Muschamp sucks. Thanks for the reminder, I will go back to being miserable and angry now."
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