In March Madness predictions, I'm cooling on Tennessee, Auburn, loving Kentucky | Toppmeyer
Blake Toppmeyer- Auburn won the SEC Tournament but got no March Madness love from the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
- Dalton Knecht is a scoring machine, but Tennessee could have trouble with Creighton's balance in the Sweet 16.
- Kentucky to the Final Four? Believe it. Wildcats pair a good draw with elite shooting.
I was ready to pencil Auburn into the Elite Eight, maybe even the Final Four. Then the bracket came out. Forget it.
For a few weeks, I thought AU profiled as a dangerous NCAA Tournament team. The Tigers are balanced on offense and defense. Their veteran roster is familiar with the pressures of March.
By the time Bruce Pearl’s Tigers were celebrating their SEC Tournament championship on Sunday afternoon, my bullishness about Auburn had reached a crescendo.
And then the NCAA selection committee turned up its nose at Auburn’s conference tournament success, placed the Tigers (27-7) in the same region as No. 1 overall seed UConn, and derailed my plans of Auburn’s deep run.
A potential Sweet 16 meeting with the defending-national-champion Huskies (31-3) is some kind of prize for winning three games in three days in Nashville.
Fourth-seeded Auburn must travel thousands of miles to even reach the Sweet 16. The Tigers will be shipped to Spokane, Washington, for a first-round game against No. 13 Yale.
Region assignments and matchups factor into NCAA Tournament success. For Auburn, this draw stinks.
ESPN bracket expert Joe Lunardi had projected Auburn as a No. 3 seed and pegged the Tigers to be in the same region as North Carolina, the weakest No. 1 seed.
If Lunardi’s crystal ball had proven accurate, I’d have Auburn in the Final Four. As it is, I’ve got a different SEC team reaching the Final Four.
Here’s how far I see each SEC team advancing.
Tennessee
Seed: No. 2, Midwest
OPINION:Tennessee basketball is talented enough for this March Madness. But is it clutch? |
Tennessee’s SEC Tournament flop likely cost it a No. 1 seed. Chickens will come home to roost if the Vols meet No. 3 Creighton in the Sweet 16. Scoring machine Dalton Knecht can power Tennessee, but the Vols can’t afford for Knecht to have an off game against a quality opponent. Creighton is one of three teams to beat UConn. The Blue Jays feature more balance than Tennessee, with three players (Baylor Scheierman, Trey Alexander and Ryan Kalkbrenner) who can score 20-plus in any game. I trust CU’s veteran balance more than a single superstar.
Prediction: Tennessee reaches the Sweet 16
Kentucky
Seed: No. 3, South
I love Kentucky’s draw and their scoring balance. Few teams shoot as well as UK. An inconsistent defense could be an issue, but which opponent can take advantage? Marquette is the South’s No. 2 seed, but one of its stars, Tyler Kolek, will be returning from an oblique injury. No. 1 seed Houston is great on defense – but it can disappear on offense. Kentucky’s recent NCAA Tournament history warns I shouldn’t expect much, but if the Wildcats are engaged, no South team is matched to handle their collection of NBA-ready talent. John Calipari will exorcise the demons of the past few years.
Prediction: Kentucky reaches the Final Four
Auburn
Seed: No. 4, East Region
The Tigers are UConn’s biggest obstacle to reaching the Final Four. Auburn ranks in the top 15 nationally in advanced offense and defense metrics. The Tigers are balanced, led by Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams in the frontcourt. Unfortunately for Auburn, everything you can say of the Tigers is also true of UConn – and the Huskies feature more firepower.
Prediction: Auburn reaches the Sweet 16
Alabama
Seed: No. 4, West Region
Alabama thrives on offense and fizzles on defense. That’s in contrast with fifth-seeded Saint Mary’s, which should await Alabama in the second round. The Gaels produced the West Coast Conference’s player of the year (Augustas Marciulionis) and defensive player of the year (Mitchell Saxen). That honor roll doesn’t include the Gaels’ leading scorer, Aidan Mahaney. The Gaels’ defense is as good as any in the SEC – good enough to keep Alabama from reaching a second straight Sweet 16.
Prediction: Alabama reaches second round
South Carolina
Seed: No. 6, Midwest
South Carolina’s first-round opponent, No. 11 Oregon, got hot in the Pac-12 Tournament, but before that, the Ducks lost three games in a four-game stretch. South Carolina should be good for one win. It lacks either the high-powered offense or ironclad defense to upset No. 3 Creighton in the second round.
Prediction: South Carolina reaches second round
Florida
Seed: No. 7, South
Gators center Micah Handlogten broke his leg in Sunday’s loss to Auburn, an especially tough break for Florida if No. 10 Boise State advances through its play-in game against Colorado. The Broncos led the Mountain West Conference in rebounding. They’re under-seeded as a No. 10 and ought to take fuel from the committee’s disrespect.
Prediction: Florida loses in first round
Mississippi State
Seed: No. 8, West
MSU’s first-round game against No. 9 Michigan State projects as a defensive struggle. The Spartans must contend with Josh Hubbard, who is scoring in droves, but you don’t want to face Tom Izzo in the first round. He’s won more than 70% of his NCAA Tournament games.
Prediction: Mississippi State loses in first round
Texas A&M
Seed: No. 9, South
Nebraska is the only Power Five team never to win an NCAA Tournament game. Buzz Williams seeks his first NCAA Tournament win at Texas A&M. What gives? The Aggies are one of the tournament’s worst-shooting teams. That concerns me.
Prediction: Texas A&M loses in first round
Final Four: No. 1 UConn, No. 1 North Carolina, No. 3 Kentucky, No. 3 Creighton
Championship: UConn beats Creighton
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's SEC Columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.
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