March Madness upset predictions for 2024: Pick these early NCAA Tournament exits

The NCAA Tournament brackets are out, and there are some juicy matchups with upset potential on Thursday and Friday.

History says the bracket will be shaken up early and often with 6-11 and 5-12 upsets, with higher seeds certainly able to be upset too.

Since 2018, all 1-and-2-seeds have advanced to the second round in a season just once (2019). In 2022, Kentucky lost to Saint Peter's in a stunner. Last year, 1-seed Purdue was stunned by 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson.

Will a massive upset happen this year? Here are our first-round upset predictions, updating throughout the night and into Monday.

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March Madness upset predictions 2024

Rodd Baxley, Fayetteville Observer

First-round upset pick: 13-seed Samford over 4-seed Kansas in the Midwest Region. It looks like a popular upset pick and for good reason. “Bucky Ball” is a blast and the Jayhawks won’t be able to keep up. 

Derrian Carter, Greenville (S.C.) News

First-round upset pick: 11-seed NC State over 6-seed Texas Tech in the South Region. NC State won five straight to win the ACC Tournament and will carry that momentum into the NCAA Tournament.

Jonah Dylan, Memphis Commercial Appeal

First-round upset pick: 12-seed Grand Canyon over 5-seed St. Mary’s in the West Region. The pride of the WAC shows up on a national stage and pulls the upset.

David Eckert, Clarion Ledger

First-round upset pick: 12-seed McNeese over 5-seed Gonzaga in the Midwest Region.

Gentry Estes, The Tennessean

First-round upset pick: 13-seed Charleston over 4-seed Alabama in the West Region.

Mark Giannotto, Memphis Commercial Appeal

First-round upset pick: 12-seed James Madison over 5-seed Wisconsin in the South Region.

Nick Gray, The Tennessean

First-round upset pick: 13-seed Samford over 4-seed Kansas in the Midwest Region. Bill Self will spend the next few days convincing the media (and maybe his team?) that the Jayhawks will be healthier and more engaged than they have been over the last few weeks. But KU will then have to deal with Bucky Ball. Good luck.

Scott Keepfer, Greenville News

First-round upset pick: 11-seed NC State over 6-seed Texas Tech in the South Region.

Stefan Krajisnik, Clarion Ledger

First-round upset pick: : 12-seed McNeese over 5-seed Gonzaga in the Midwest Region. Will Wade will make his case to be a high-level coach again.

Jason Munz, Memphis Commercial Appeal

First-round upset pick: 12-seed McNeese over 5-seed Gonzaga in the Midwest Region.

Tyler Palmateer, The Tennessean

First-round upset pick: 13-seed Samford over 4-seed Kansas in the Midwest Region. Nothing has gone right for KU lately, and with stars Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. dealing with injuries, Samford advances.

Blake Toppmeyer, USA TODAY Sports SEC columnist

First-round upset pick: 12-seed James Madison over 5-seed Wisconsin in the South Region.

Mike Wilson, Knoxville News Sentinel

First-round upset pick: 11-seed New Mexico over 6-seed Clemson in the West Region. New Mexico plays fast and takes care of the ball. The Lobos are a nightmare matchup for the Tigers.